Last modified: 2015-04-24
Abstract
A probabilistic structural analysis of an experimental Composite Crew Module (CCM) has been performed using the most current Orion Crew Module design loads. The purpose of the analysis was to quantify the risk of failure for different factors of safety in response to uncertainties in the design variables.
The CCM was found to be very safe with ample margin of safety and a low probability of failure. As a further analysis activity, the loads were scaled up and the composite material’s strength was scaled down to assess a bounding scenario; still the design was found to be safe.
This analysis shows that for given factor of safety and uncertainty in the design space, the probability of failure associated with the design can be significantly different. Further, designing structures based on factor of safety without quantifying the influence of uncertainties in the design variables can lead to structures with unknown risk.